OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Predicts AGI in 2025

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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman just predicted that artificial general intelligence will be achieved in 2025, coming alongside conflicting reports of slowing progress in LLM development and scaling across the industry.

The details:

  • In an interview with YC founder Gary Tan, Altman said the path to AGI is ‘basically clear’ and will require engineering, not new scientific breakthroughs.

  • A new report revealed that the rumored ‘Orion’ model shows smaller improvement over GPT-4 than previous generations, especially in coding tasks.

  • The company also reportedly formed a new “Foundations Team” to tackle fundamental challenges, such as the scarcity of high-quality training data.

  • OpenAI researchers Noam Brown and Clive Chan backed Altman’s AGI confidence, believing the o1 reasoning model offers new scaling capabilities.

Why it matters: Altman’s prediction would mean a drastic leap in the company’s AGI scale (currently level 2 of 5) — but the CEO has remained consistent in his confidence. With OpenAI suddenly prioritizing o1 development, it makes sense that the reasoning model might have shown new potential to break through any scaling limits.

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