Small Business Owners Fear Revenue Hits from U.S. Trade Policy Shifts

As the new U.S. administration tries to reshape trade policy with proposed tariffs, going back and forth with Canada, Mexico, and China, small business owners across the U.S. are sounding the alarm.

According to a new survey from Alignable, the largest networking platform for small businesses, nearly one in three (30%) anticipate revenue losses, with 15% expecting significant declines due to current or future tariffs. 

In contrast, only 18% foresee a boost in sales, and just half of them (9%) predict substantial gains. Meanwhile, 40% of respondents believe tariffs will have no impact on their businesses, while 12% remain uncertain.

These insights come from a pulse poll conducted by Alignable’s Research Center, gathering 3,718 responses from randomly selected small business owners between January 7 and January 31, 2025.

“Small businesses are already navigating a financial minefield—rising costs, inflation, and economic uncertainty. Now, the threat of new tariffs could be the breaking point for many,” said Eric Groves, Alignable’s CEO and Co-Founder. “Our data reveals a troubling reality: thousands of Main Street businesses are barely staying afloat, and additional financial strain could force them to make impossible choices—hiking prices, cutting staff, or even shutting down altogether. Policymakers must recognize the real-world consequences of these trade policies before they deal a devastating blow to the backbone of our economy.”

State-by-State Breakdown

Considering that small businesses contribute 44% of the U.S. GDP, the ripple effects of any new tariffs could be severe—particularly in states where concerns about lost sales are highest.

According to Alignable’s survey, the states where entrepreneurs are most worried about the negative impact include:

  • Minnesota (40%)
  • Washington State (39%)
  • Illinois (35%)
  • California & Ohio (34%)
  • North Carolina (33%) and
  • Wisconsin (32%).

Massachusetts business owners align with the national average of 30%, while concern levels taper off in other states, including:

  • New York (29%)
  • Colorado & Florida (28%)
  • Texas & Maryland (27%)
  • Michigan (26%)
  • Missouri (25%) and
  • Virginia (19%).

 

A Boon for Some, a Burden for Many

While some sectors anticipate gains from tariffs, many more expect downturns. Manufacturers and business consultants were the only industries where more small business owners predicted sales increases rather than losses:

  • 34% of manufacturers expect a sales boost, with 17% forecasting significant increases.
  • 21% of business consultants foresee greater revenue, with 12% anticipating major gains.

However, as the chart above shows, many other industries fear serious losses:

  • 48% of architects/interior designers
  • 43% of print/copy service owners
  • 39% in science/technology
  • 38% in health/wellness & art/music services
  • 35% in travel/lodging
  • 34% in retail and
  • 33% in marketing/advertising & restaurants.

In contrast, industries showing less concern include the automotive sector, where only 24% are worried about sales losses. This situation is similar for:

  • 20% of landscapers
  • 18% of beauty salon owners and
  • 14% of plumbers.

 

Real Voices from Small Business Owners

While the statistics reveal the broader potential impact, direct responses from business owners highlight the range of real-world consequences of these proposed tariffs:

  • “The cost of materials will increase. None of my clients will be ready for the sticker shock. I’m prepared to have no sales at all.”
  • “It won’t impact my business, but this is still a huge concern because rising costs due to tariffs will still affect me personally. Plus, I have family and community members whose businesses will suffer.”
  • “If people have to pay more for everything else, they might not have the money for my product.”
  • “Tariffs will increase my costs overall, so less profit.”
  • “It depends on if you are selling American-made products or not. Sell American-made, and you will be OK.”
  • “I have a service business and only use American-made products, so my company, at least, should be insulated from the tariffs.”