National Hurricane Center
Thursday, August 27, 2015
SUMMARY OF 500 AM
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LOCATION...16.8N 61.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands this morning, move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the north and east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday.
